E-Mini to Fall Below Yesterday’s Low?

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Emini daily chart

• The S&P 500 Futures have had six consecutive days without falling below the prior bar, indicating bullish strength. However, this also makes the market climactic and increases the odds that the Emini will fall below yesterday’s low (4,536.25).
• Traders should expect the next day or two to lead to sideways trading and disappoint the bulls.
• The channel up from the July 10th low is tight, which increases the odds that the first reversal down will be limited.
• The first target for the bears is 4,500; however, for them to reach it, they will likely need to develop more selling pressure first.
• Traders expect a pullback soon and will closely monitor the strength of the pullback. If the bears can get consecutive strong bear closes, that will increase the odds of a second leg down and lower prices.
• Overall, the market is Always In Long, which means the odds favor higher prices and a second leg up. However, as mentioned above, traders will pay close attention to any pullback to measure the strength of the bears and the determination of the bulls to buy and pullback.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

• Emini is down 2 points in the overnight Globex session.
• The 60-minute Globex chart sold off, forming a second leg down after yesterday’s late end-of-day selloff at the close of the U.S. Session.
• The market is in the middle of a trading range that has gone on for a day or two.
• Traders should be neutral going into the day and assume that the odds favor a trading range open.
• This means traders should expect a limit order market to last for the first 6-12 bars at a minimum. Most traders should consider not trading unless they are comfortable using wide stops and scaling in.
• There is at least an 80% chance that the open will form the opening swing after forming a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom. This means a trader can wait for one of the patterns mentioned above to form and enter a stop taking a chance of catching the opening swing and getting more than twice their risk.
• Lastly, traders should pay close attention to yesterday’s low as it will likely be an important magnet today.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart

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