Citi Never Sleeps – Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…
On Tuesday, I joined the MoneyShow “Virtual Accredited Investor Conference” to present “Turnaround Tom’s Top Picks and Outlook for 2024.” Thanks to Mike Larson, Debbie Osborne and Shelly Coyle for having me on:
There were a lot of important slides in this deck, but for my money, this is the most important one:
The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook
Here were the 3 key points:
1) Being short and pessimistic China has become very crowded:
FMS trade
Chinese economy
2) Sentiment still pessimistic and skeptical, NOT euphoric:
Net % of FMS Investors
Net % of FMS Investors
3) Previous instances of lower short rates at this level of extreme proved to be correct:
Expectations for lower short-term rates at a record high
Citi Never Sleeps (except for the last 15 years)! Is the giant awakening from its slumber?
C (Monthly)
On 9/1/2023 when Citi was trading ~$41.50 I joined Charles Payne on Fox Business to talk markets and a few stocks:
While it has started to move in the last few months, we believe it could have meaningful upside over the next couple of years as the restructuring plays out and capital markets re-open for deals, IPO’s and financings:
Citigroup Inc
As we begin Q4 earnings season, I’m trying to highlight the results from 1-2 companies per week that we have talked about on our weekly podcast|videocast(s). Today we’ll do a deep dive on CITI’s results:
Citigroup Inc
Paypal Update
“We will Shock the World on January 25” Alex Chriss:
Now onto the shorter term view for the General Market:
In this week’s AAII Sentiment Survey result, Bullish Percent (Video Explanation) dropped to 40.4% from 48.6% the previous week. Bearish Percent ticked up to 26.8% from 24.2%. Retail investors are cooling their jets a bit.
Sentiment Survey Historical Data
AAII Bulls
The CNN “Fear and Greed” dropped from 73 last week to 58 this week. By this metric, investors are neutral. You can learn how this indicator is calculated and how it works here: (Video Explanation)
Fear & Greed Index
UN – CNN Fear and Greed Index
The NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers Index) (Video Explanation) rose to 80.18% this week from 70.95% equity exposure last week ago.
NAAIM Exposure Index
This content was originally published on Hedgefundtips.com
