Is Bitcoin Reaching a Local Top Soon?
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In our last update, see here, Bitcoin was trading at $31000 and we found,
“I
Fast forward, and our assessment that BTC would continue to move high over the past two weeks was correct, as it now trades at around $35K. See Figure 1 below.
Figure 1. The daily chart of BTC with several technical indicators
BTC Daily ChartBased on the micro-EWP count, it appears BTC is still wrapping up the grey W-iii of green W-1 and that the original W-1 high at around $32,000+/-1000 can be raised to around $37,500+/-1000. From there, we should expect BTC to drop to approximately $28,500-32,500 for the green W-2 before the green W-3 targets at least $45K, but possibly much higher.
The alternative is that BTC is in a one-degree lower, aka more minor, 3rd wave, and instead of wrapping up one more set of a 4th and 5th wave, it needs a set of two more before the larger W-2 pullback occurs. See the green W-4 and red W-iii, iv, v in Figure 2 below. This sequence would target slightly higher: $39,500+/-1000.
Figure 2. The daily chart of BTC with several technical indicators
BTC Daily Chart
As a first warning for the Bulls, Bitcoin will have to drop below $32780 from current levels. The 2nd warning is on a direct drop below $30K, and the 3rd warning is below $28500. Our Bullish scenario is entirely invalidated below $25K. These are our insurance levels to prevent potentially more extensive havoc on our portfolio. However, only when that happens will we change our overall, longer-term Bullish POV, which BTC is proving more and more correct for each day that passes in that:
“.”
